The majority of Belgium’s electricity comes from nuclear, wind and solar. They have been greatly expanding wind parks in the north sea, and they’re in the early stages of deploying SMRs. But the reality is that Belgium still needs a lot of natural gas for electricity production and its large chemical industry, and that all of this gas has to be imported.
Long term there is the European hydrogen strategy which aims to convert a lot of the current natural gas storage and transportation grid to hydrogen and use that in places that currently use LNG, but this requires inventing new technologies so is not a quick fix.
The real problem are transport and heating. In most countries, those consume significantly more primary energy than the electricity sector and are still mostly fossil fueled. For example, more than half of the primary energy consumed in France is oil and gas. Heat pumps and electric vehicles or trains can now finally change this, but the transition is very slow.
Google "Messmer Plan". France built 65 reactors in 15 years as a reaction to the 70s oil crisis, and now the majority of electricity in France comes from nuclear without any significant dependency on fossil fuels. The only thing that we're lacking is political will to change things.
Yep. Once people experience true hardship like having to keep their house just above freezing in the winter due to the cost of energy - all of a sudden impossible things become quite possible.
The only potential issue here would be if the west had collectively hollowed out its manufacturing base so much as to make surging capacity and capability a generational thing vs. immediate.
Coasting on past success eventually brings stagnation and pain. Hopefully the pain isn’t too horrible for normal folks this time around.
And now Flamanville 3 is 7x over budget and 14 years late. Online but not commercially operational.
Their EPR2 fleet are getting an enormously large subsidy at 11 cents kWh CFD for 40 years and interest free loans. With the first reactor online in 2038 of everything goes to plan.
How many trillions in subsidies should we handout to new built nuclear power to ”try for real”?
Or we can just build renewables and storage which is the cheapest energy source in human history.
6-7 years. France built 40 its nuclear reactors in a decade, at 6-7 years per reactor.
Right now China is building reactors at 6-7 years per reactor.
--- start quote ---
Nearly every Chinese nuclear project that has entered service since 2010 has achieved construction in 7 years or less.
Every single conventional commercial-scale reactor project in Chinese history has achieved completion in under a decade
Since the start of 2022, China has completed an additional five domestic reactor builds, with their completion times ranging from just under five years to just over 7 years. This continues the consistent completion record of Chinese projects even despite potential disruptions from the intervening COVID-19 pandemic.
China successfully constructed six nuclear reactors in Pakistan in around 5.5-6 years each
> Right now China is building reactors at 6-7 years per reactor.
Thats China. In Europe, this building speed isnt going to happen anytime soon. The knowledge to build nuclear at that scale isn't in the coutry/continent anymore. You'd have to reteach an entire generation of engineers.
Besides that, part of the point of switching away from oil and gas is at least some independence. Europe isnt known for its nuclear fuel supply so now you're reliant on another country again.
Yes, most solar is produced in China but its about as low maintence as it gets and there is still enough knowledge to produce in Europe.
Green energy is super useful for heating in winter. At this point heat pumps are better than gas in almost every way unless the temperature is well below freezing. So it's just a matter of electricity which Italy and Belgium can get from the current mix of green energy (wind and even solar) and other forms (nuclear, coal, etc...)
The wake up call should be for Europe to stop allowing the US and Israel to do what they want, starting from the US arrogance that led to the war in Ukraine and the subsequent punishment that Europe inflicted on itself by sanctioning Russia. We should go back buying gas from Russia and from anyone who sells it, keeping as many suppliers as possible, using diplomacy and any power we can project (political, financial or military) to stop other countries from messing up our economy- starting again from Israel, the US, Russia, etc.
Then buy it from the US at a higher price? The same US that helps Israel in occupation and genocide in Palestine and in attacking sovereign countries all around?
"It's not that you refrain from doing something because it will offend Russia. If Russia is doing something that we don't want it to do, we should offend them."[0]
And that's coming from a man who said a few minutes earlier:
"There is one of the factor here that we seem to be forgetting, and we did, though it was not a legally binding assurance, we gave categorical assurances to Gorbachev, back when the Soviet Union existed, that if a United Germany was able to stay in NATO, NATO would not be moved eastward. ... It is not a legally binding, but it was, you might say, a geopolitical deal."[1]
But later on it was a repeating speaking point that it's not Russia's business if NATO decides to expand.
And should I mention the US "midwifing" the coup in Ukraine in 2014? [2]
> "It's not that you refrain from doing something because it will offend Russia. If Russia is doing something that we don't want it to do, we should offend them."[0]
Has Russia ever refrained from offending the West when it suited their interests?
> And should I mention the US "midwifing" the coup in Ukraine in 2014? [2]
It takes some really stupid arrogance to say shit like this when Ukraine literally had Russian stooge as a president at the time, installed via fossil fuel extortion. If Russia wanted truly neutral Ukraine, they should've backed the fuck off in the first place.
The arrogance of ignoring repeated Russian requests to stop NATO expansion and Ukraine integration into NATO, and of not stopping (well documented) US political meddling in Ukraine. This went on for many years- Mearsheimer was able to predict the war ten years in advance. The US and Europe ignored all this- the US maybe because it really stood to gain from a war, Europe because it thought it was beneath itself to seriously engage with Russia.
NATO is a military alliance, the only ones who get a say about who is in it and who isn't are its current members. That said, of course choices have consequences, and some choices are more advisable/ appropriate than others.
I’m pretty confident that a large part of NATO (and all other military alliances) is the accession of new members. Candidate members have to want to accede, which goes back to my question: why are we talking about what the US and Russia want, when Ukraine’s wants are just as if not more important?
NATO is a defensive pact, it can't expand. Countries can and want to join it willingly.
> and of not stopping (well documented) US political meddling in Ukraine
Assuming that's true, and it's a big if, let's turn this around: Russia has been messing with Ukraine politics since the collapse of the USSR. Why shouldn't US be allowed to?
> Europe because it thought it was beneath itself to seriously engage with Russia.
Beneath itself like, checks notes, making its industry completely dependent on Russian energy exports and pretty much not doing anything when Russia attacked Georgia, occupied Crimea and attacked east of Ukraine. If Europe had a backbone and considered Russia *beneath* them, it would completely kill any trade with it.
It's up to the current members to decide who can join and who can't. That should also include considerations of opportunity.
> Russia has been messing with Ukraine politics since the collapse of the USSR. Why shouldn't US be allowed to?
The US is allowed to do whatever its military and economic power allows it to. Then actions have consequences. The consequences had been stated clearly.
> pretty much not doing anything when Russia attacked Georgia, occupied Crimea
Here, check the history of sanctions of the EU to Russia. It goes back to 2014.
Mearsheimer was predicting Putin wouldn't do a full scale invasion of Ukraine right up until shortly after he already did , so strange choice of Cassandra to pick.
It’s never dawned on you that the lying, cheating, manipulative, murderous Epstein class government just may have lied to you? They may lie to you every day, telling you e.g., that there’s just absolutely no money for proper care of its own citizens’ fundamental needs, but then immediately approve 10X that amount to squander and personally profit from murder and military spending … but you think those people are just the most honest people that never ever lie about what happened/history???
The problem is, russia wants to see Europe subjugated, conquered, its lapdog ripe for governance from russia to have everything stolen by few oligarchs around that clown puttin'.
This is russian modus operandi everywhere, they don't know any better, they never knew. This comes from somebody who grew up behind iron curtain, a country effectively enslaved by russians, forcibly having massive russian military bases and atomic weapons, to be a nuclear battlefield that 3rd world war was supposed to be.
You can't have a fair dealings with them, not when they sense any kind of weakness. Former german leaders showed conjsistently such weakness and desperate appeasing, dragged rest of EU with them and look where it led to. Also, russia as a state is waging 20+ years of asymetric warfare against whole west, but especially focusing subverting EU structures.
I wish we could have normal relationships with them, we really tried in Europe, but they are fucked up as a nation, without any hope in this century for any sort of radical change.
I agree US is right now just a bully and arrogant aggressive a-hole, sowing chaos all around the world and poorest suffer the most. But there are not that many options - fucked up US with no clear leadership change (once trump's support goes to single digits I will restore some of my faith in that nation, not sooner), russia is simply the bad guy globally, consistently, and gulf states are not so reliable as we see. What remains - Venezuela, Nigeria maybe? No good choices, maybe due to resource curse but then again ie Norway managed such free treasure just fine.
AFAIK, 1970s energy crisis pushed Europeans to invent efficient small cars so let's hope this crisis pushes EU into completely abandoning fossils in favor of electricity generated by local means like nuclear, solar, hydro, wind etc. Even if the war doesn't go long enough, the contrast between Spain and Italy in energy security is stark enough to make a point.
Maybe Trump is playing 4D chess after all, pushing Europe into independence so US can spend its energy on China :)
800 lbs. gorilla: for energy generation uses (so excluding petrochem processes explicitly requiring petroleum feedstock without any closely practical substitute(s)), the goal of decarbonization is essential not just for climate change reasons.
Europe has plenty of shale gas but refuses to exploit it. Nuclear was stopped or even dismantled. There is such a lack of strategic thinking that at some point the only logical conclusion is that we like to suffer and to lose.
> Or that our political and media class are captured...
Yes, obviously that's the case, however it goes beyond that. I still vividly remember how in high school they taught us persistently how bad nuclear power is for the environment. And TBH for a very long time, I actually believed it. A lot of people in Germany never stopped believing it. At this point we have to admit to ourselves that the "Green"'s are a political ideology with good slogans, but ultimately contrary to their own messaging it is: pro-war, anti-worker, anti-independence, and generally just a basket to capture anti-empire sentiment to redirect them towards supporting it.
Long term there is the European hydrogen strategy which aims to convert a lot of the current natural gas storage and transportation grid to hydrogen and use that in places that currently use LNG, but this requires inventing new technologies so is not a quick fix.
Green energy isn't very useful for heating in winter.
The only potential issue here would be if the west had collectively hollowed out its manufacturing base so much as to make surging capacity and capability a generational thing vs. immediate.
Coasting on past success eventually brings stagnation and pain. Hopefully the pain isn’t too horrible for normal folks this time around.
Their EPR2 fleet are getting an enormously large subsidy at 11 cents kWh CFD for 40 years and interest free loans. With the first reactor online in 2038 of everything goes to plan.
How many trillions in subsidies should we handout to new built nuclear power to ”try for real”?
Or we can just build renewables and storage which is the cheapest energy source in human history.
Citation very much needed, or "yes it is"
We do manage quite well to use green energy for heating during winter in Sweden.
Solar energy isn't the only 'green' energy. The wind, tides, geothermal vents, rivers etc all continue to work as well or better in winter.
Plus there's a lot of room for improvement elsewhere, like insulation.
6-7 years. France built 40 its nuclear reactors in a decade, at 6-7 years per reactor.
Right now China is building reactors at 6-7 years per reactor.
--- start quote ---
Nearly every Chinese nuclear project that has entered service since 2010 has achieved construction in 7 years or less.
Every single conventional commercial-scale reactor project in Chinese history has achieved completion in under a decade
Since the start of 2022, China has completed an additional five domestic reactor builds, with their completion times ranging from just under five years to just over 7 years. This continues the consistent completion record of Chinese projects even despite potential disruptions from the intervening COVID-19 pandemic.
China successfully constructed six nuclear reactors in Pakistan in around 5.5-6 years each
https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/chinas-impressive-...
--- end quote ---
Thats China. In Europe, this building speed isnt going to happen anytime soon. The knowledge to build nuclear at that scale isn't in the coutry/continent anymore. You'd have to reteach an entire generation of engineers.
Besides that, part of the point of switching away from oil and gas is at least some independence. Europe isnt known for its nuclear fuel supply so now you're reliant on another country again.
Yes, most solar is produced in China but its about as low maintence as it gets and there is still enough knowledge to produce in Europe.
Yes.
> starting from the US arrogance that led to the war in Ukraine
No.
> We should go back buying gas from Russia
Hell no.
What arrogance would this be?
"It's not that you refrain from doing something because it will offend Russia. If Russia is doing something that we don't want it to do, we should offend them."[0]
And that's coming from a man who said a few minutes earlier:
"There is one of the factor here that we seem to be forgetting, and we did, though it was not a legally binding assurance, we gave categorical assurances to Gorbachev, back when the Soviet Union existed, that if a United Germany was able to stay in NATO, NATO would not be moved eastward. ... It is not a legally binding, but it was, you might say, a geopolitical deal."[1]
But later on it was a repeating speaking point that it's not Russia's business if NATO decides to expand.
And should I mention the US "midwifing" the coup in Ukraine in 2014? [2]
[0] https://youtu.be/ZHm_7T7QNl8?si=3j_teBKN1sFVOGSL&t=925
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHm_7T7QNl8&t=706s
[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
Has Russia ever refrained from offending the West when it suited their interests?
> And should I mention the US "midwifing" the coup in Ukraine in 2014? [2]
It takes some really stupid arrogance to say shit like this when Ukraine literally had Russian stooge as a president at the time, installed via fossil fuel extortion. If Russia wanted truly neutral Ukraine, they should've backed the fuck off in the first place.
And they repeatedly rejected Ukraine and are still doing it? What's your point?
> and of not stopping (well documented) US political meddling in Ukraine
Assuming that's true, and it's a big if, let's turn this around: Russia has been messing with Ukraine politics since the collapse of the USSR. Why shouldn't US be allowed to?
> Europe because it thought it was beneath itself to seriously engage with Russia.
Beneath itself like, checks notes, making its industry completely dependent on Russian energy exports and pretty much not doing anything when Russia attacked Georgia, occupied Crimea and attacked east of Ukraine. If Europe had a backbone and considered Russia *beneath* them, it would completely kill any trade with it.
It's up to the current members to decide who can join and who can't. That should also include considerations of opportunity.
> Russia has been messing with Ukraine politics since the collapse of the USSR. Why shouldn't US be allowed to?
The US is allowed to do whatever its military and economic power allows it to. Then actions have consequences. The consequences had been stated clearly.
> pretty much not doing anything when Russia attacked Georgia, occupied Crimea
Here, check the history of sanctions of the EU to Russia. It goes back to 2014.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-agains...
Who's 'we', comrade?
Is that you? https://i.redd.it/0vgfxkqo7p0d1.jpeg
The US arrogance of Russia claiming Ukraine is a country that shouldn't exist and invading it?
This is russian modus operandi everywhere, they don't know any better, they never knew. This comes from somebody who grew up behind iron curtain, a country effectively enslaved by russians, forcibly having massive russian military bases and atomic weapons, to be a nuclear battlefield that 3rd world war was supposed to be.
You can't have a fair dealings with them, not when they sense any kind of weakness. Former german leaders showed conjsistently such weakness and desperate appeasing, dragged rest of EU with them and look where it led to. Also, russia as a state is waging 20+ years of asymetric warfare against whole west, but especially focusing subverting EU structures.
I wish we could have normal relationships with them, we really tried in Europe, but they are fucked up as a nation, without any hope in this century for any sort of radical change.
I agree US is right now just a bully and arrogant aggressive a-hole, sowing chaos all around the world and poorest suffer the most. But there are not that many options - fucked up US with no clear leadership change (once trump's support goes to single digits I will restore some of my faith in that nation, not sooner), russia is simply the bad guy globally, consistently, and gulf states are not so reliable as we see. What remains - Venezuela, Nigeria maybe? No good choices, maybe due to resource curse but then again ie Norway managed such free treasure just fine.
Maybe Trump is playing 4D chess after all, pushing Europe into independence so US can spend its energy on China :)
Are there 4?
Or that our political and media class are captured...
Yes, obviously that's the case, however it goes beyond that. I still vividly remember how in high school they taught us persistently how bad nuclear power is for the environment. And TBH for a very long time, I actually believed it. A lot of people in Germany never stopped believing it. At this point we have to admit to ourselves that the "Green"'s are a political ideology with good slogans, but ultimately contrary to their own messaging it is: pro-war, anti-worker, anti-independence, and generally just a basket to capture anti-empire sentiment to redirect them towards supporting it.
As things stand now it won't be able to compensate for the closure of older reactors.