Q: The J-dip is where capital stock is just about to overtake investment growth, why should it lag the hype trough where presumably value overtakes interest ?
This completely breaks down under the current reality of AI investment, as players large and small are no longer price-takers. The marginal costs of investment are not constant because we have finite supplies of GPUs, TPUs, memory, hard drives, and power. The Hamiltonian in equations 5 and 6 needs to account for this.
It's not that supply was actually infinite, but you didn't realistically have situations where you said "I want to buy GPUs for a data center" only to be told "there's a 3 year waiting list."
You might have two months after NVidia 3090s came out where they were short, but it is nothing like today.
https://www.financialprofessionals.org/training-resources/re...
Q: The J-dip is where capital stock is just about to overtake investment growth, why should it lag the hype trough where presumably value overtakes interest ?
You might have two months after NVidia 3090s came out where they were short, but it is nothing like today.
AI companies are intentionally trying to monopolize the supply of inputs needed for R&D. This violates homogeneity of degree 1.