High growth scenario and medium growth scenario (Graph 2). I feel like an idiot asking - aren't we missing some, or at least one, scenario? Is "medium growth" for the next 4 years really the worst people can think of?
Essentially yes? The stock market operates entirely on the assumption that the lines will keep going up. As soon as they flatten the whole thing collapses onto itself.
if growth doesn't materialize, then the infrastructure build out plays out exactly like the dot com bubble. the biggest difference this time around is the earnings. if those fall, the rest crubmles.
Can't you see how much money is being pumped into this lunacy? Of course it's going to succeed. Graphs for failire are such a bummer too and are bad for the economy...
I've seen other reports that suggest the level of investment for eclipses the internet buid out in 2000 and the railroad boom more than a century earlier. I wonder if they use different ways of landing on these wildly different assessments
Yes. In inflation adjusted dollars spending on AI dwarfs previous "megaprojects". But as a fraction of GDP it's fairly modest -- comparable to the Apollo Project.
It's a sign of how much the economy has grown that under "1% of GDP for a few years" now is far bigger than "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" was in the late 1800s.
https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2026e.htm
At this point anything less than "medium growth" will crash the economy. We'll have bigger problems if that happens (think 2000 or 2008)
It's a sign of how much the economy has grown that under "1% of GDP for a few years" now is far bigger than "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" was in the late 1800s.