Congrats! I've worked on a similar technology converting waste syngas to 3-hydroxy-butyrate for further applications. Unfortunately in my case, we couldn't see any valuable and scalable end products from that particular molecule but I'm excited to follow your journey. Best of luck!
Thanks for the comment and the kind words! That does sound like a pretty cool technology! Is 3-hydroxy-butyrate a specialty chemical? Or would you also end up selling it as a commodity? What does the process look like in going from syngas to 3-hydroxy-butyrate?
I'm curious how hard the go to market in hard tech like this is? What is the long term economic model in terms of what you think the margin can be and what the incentives for plants to adopt this technology?
Great question! Thanks for asking. The GTM is tricky because it is so closely linked with scaling the technology, and because it is so two-sided. The way we currently do it is we look to build strong relationships with potential customers over time, getting in contact early and strengthening relationships as we scale the technology. So with many potential customers, we will first sign an LOI or MOU and then with every scale-up in technology we can formalize those relationships a little bit more. Until you get to a point where you have customers that you can convert to binding offtake agreements. We use a very similar script on the biogas supply side. And everytime you scale the tech further it becomes a little easier because a larger pool of companies is willing to engage and take the risk of doing business with you.
In the long term, we will look to be build, own and operate these units. Based on chemical engineering simulations and techno-economic modelling, we think we can be price competitive with fossil-derived DME and be the cheapest green methanol on the market with pretty strong margins for the chemical industry (where margins usually hover around 10%).
Thanks for question! One of the benefits of our tech is we think we can go to pretty small sites and still be profitable. Our latest estimate is that a site would need to produce around 45 SCFM of biogas for us to be able to install a unit (around 14000 MMBtu/yr).
Initially we will likely have an operator on-site keeping an eye on the first few units. But as we scale the idea is for these units to be automated. No labor needed to run it. We can keep tabs on all of the units from a centralized location and if there are any process hiccups it shuts down automatically. We could then send a technician (who oversees multiple sites in the area)_come out to the site and restart the unit.
Why biogas specifically? This should work fine with regular fossil methane, and it will de-risk your deployments. There are plenty of places in Texas that uselessly flare the natural gas instead of doing anything with it.
We do it with biogas specifically because it enables us to produce chemicals with a 90% lower carbon footprint. Our thesis has always been that when you combine cheap waste feedstocks and an efficent enough process, you could produce green chemicals that are cost competitive with the fossil alternative. Biogas is the ideal waste feedstock because it gives us a low CI, is produced 24/7 and is quite consistent in its composition. We also get it for relatively cheap.
Our process is also more efficient with CO2 so we actually like the CO2 being present.
We really need solutions like this if we are going to reverse atmospheric carbon the necessary amount to mitigate planetary catastrophe. Thanks for working on this. Good luck.
Thanks for the kind words! We appreciate it, let me know if you'd like me to add you to our newsletter. You can also sign up for it at rise-reforming.com/team.
I’ll bite. What’s the average fart gonna net me if I use your service vs the leading competitor?
I can get a $5 pizza from Little Caesars and power a small plane all night, but if the math checks out we’ll be shopping for yachts
I'm curious how hard the go to market in hard tech like this is? What is the long term economic model in terms of what you think the margin can be and what the incentives for plants to adopt this technology?
In the long term, we will look to be build, own and operate these units. Based on chemical engineering simulations and techno-economic modelling, we think we can be price competitive with fossil-derived DME and be the cheapest green methanol on the market with pretty strong margins for the chemical industry (where margins usually hover around 10%).
Let me know if you have more questions!
Initially we will likely have an operator on-site keeping an eye on the first few units. But as we scale the idea is for these units to be automated. No labor needed to run it. We can keep tabs on all of the units from a centralized location and if there are any process hiccups it shuts down automatically. We could then send a technician (who oversees multiple sites in the area)_come out to the site and restart the unit.
Hope that answers your questions!
Our process is also more efficient with CO2 so we actually like the CO2 being present.