The AI Race Just Got Awkward

(insufferable.dev)

96 points | by allisdust 32 minutes ago

12 comments

  • slowin 6 minutes ago
    I'm also grateful to the Chinese labs for providing workarounds for the walled gardens that the US based AI companies are attempting to create.

    Does anyone know if there are any distillation datasets available? I'd love to see these distributed on BitTorrent. I think it's critical that AI be democratized and not isolated in the hands of a few private companies.

  • reedf1 1 minute ago
    I've been running Qwen 3.8 27b (an opus 4.6 tier model), locally on a 5090 for just over two weeks @ 170 tokens/s. That's a frontier model from 9 months ago running on consumer hardware. Who knows where distillation and pruning gets us in another year.
  • eggbrain 8 minutes ago
    Performance optimizations don't just help the western labs, they also help with running more powerful/useful LLMs locally.

    If local LLMs get "good" enough, people will soon paying for subscriptions to ChatGPT and Claude, which hurts their revenue.

    • ericol 5 minutes ago
      > people will soon *stop paying

      Think you missed a word there.

  • amelius 12 minutes ago
    > So the Chinese labs have thrown a lifeline to the Western loss-making labs, and I just have no clue as to why.

    Any ideas?

    • carbonguy 2 minutes ago
      My immediate midwit take is: doesn't matter if it helps Anthropic/OpenAI if it helps DeepSeek more, relatively. Making open-weights models even cheaper and easier to run expands that "market" and increases competitive pressure on the Big Two, who still have to charge money.
    • curuinor 8 minutes ago
      There are 1000 Chinese labs. They are involuting, they cannot coordinate and the state won't let them coordinate because the state wants domination, not actual profits for anybody. So the market forces are allowed to dominate.

      Because of the basic huge recession going on in China, you can't actually make money in China doing China things. So they gotta gird up their export stuff and try to export. That entails strong relations with American companies, American PR, English stuff, etc.

      If you want an essay about this from a VC, read this one

      https://earnedintuition.substack.com/p/involution-without-ex...

      • dabedee 2 minutes ago
        What a strange way to put it. Market forces are a good thing in a market economy. Only someone who secretly wants or hopes for monopolies would you say something to the contrary (a VC).
      • thrawa8387336 1 minute ago
        LMAO recession, China? You've been reading too much Brad Setser
    • pj_mukh 6 minutes ago
      Occam's razor: Going to closed-source just to hide KV-cache optimizations seems silly?
    • ambicapter 8 minutes ago
      They want the Western labs to keep digging themselves into a hole? You can do so by egging on the true believers on your side to egg on the labs on the other side.
    • mpalmer 0 minutes ago
      They would like to see Western civilization keep getting dumber, and if that means bolstering the success of Western firms, that's okay.
    • foul 7 minutes ago
      Market manipulation or slowing down demand for chips for a bit/moving the offer elsewhere temporarily?
  • open592 1 minute ago
    > If you read the news headlines these days, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Western labs are getting spawn-camped by Chinese labs en masse.

    Ah brings back Halo 2 memories

  • LogicFailsMe 0 minutes ago
    Watch any interview with the Chinese AI leaders and compare it to the unending doomer word salads from America's mightiest paper billionaires. We're losing because we have a loser late stage capitalist scarcity mindset. They're winning because they're sharing notes and one-upping each other just like we used to until 2015 or so. They have a healthy ecosystem of competing small AI startups. We have two bloated unprofitable pigs both striving to be too big to fail. My money's on China for the immediate future.
  • emtel 5 minutes ago
    As far as I can tell, neither of the frontier US labs have referred to distillation as "stealing", but someone please provide a link if I'm wrong.

    They do claim that it violates their ToS, which we can assume is simply correct, since they get to put whatever they want in their ToS.

    Given all that, I don't know what the fuss is. Are they supposed to not use the advances that were openly published by Chinese labs? The entire industry is built on a discovery made at Google, which was published openly. Should Chinese labs therefore not use transformers? Should US labs not try to prevent distillation of their models?

    • dgellow 2 minutes ago
      I don’t think there is fuss, just the author sharing the information and mentioning how they find it a bit ironic that US labs expenses can be reduced drastically thanks to the Chinese companies they continuously frame as adversaries
  • adamrezich 4 minutes ago
    OpenAI is jobbing (in professional wresting terminology) hard right now.
  • nba456_ 10 minutes ago
    Appropriate domain name
  • Handy-Man 11 minutes ago
    Just assumptions, nothing backing it. So maybe I'd sit out calling others out.

    Edit: Apt domain.

    • slowin 4 minutes ago
      How is it just assumptions? They provide the data to back up their claims.
  • jgrahamc 6 minutes ago
    The first sentence is: "If you read the news headlines these days, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Western labs are getting spawn-camped by Chinese labs en masse."

    Since I have no idea what "spawn-camped" means I gave up reading the rest.

    • emilecantin 4 minutes ago
      It's from video games, where a player "camps" near the spawn point and kills newly-spawned players, presumably with better equipment.

      It's not that niche, if you've been online a little bit you'd know this expression.

      • cassianoleal 1 minute ago
        > if you've been online a little bit you'd know this expression

        I've been online since circa 1995 (earlier if you count BBSs), and I can't say I did. It's possible to infer its meaning but assuming everyone is on the same circles as one is, is silly.

    • Intragalactic 1 minute ago
      If you tend to stop reading every time you encounter something you don't understand, I can't imagine you learn very much

      "spawn-camping" is the process of taking out your enemies at the point they spawn (or appear) in a game without giving them a chance to regroup. In this case I think the writer is saying that the news implies that western models are getting distilled on release. Not the perfect analogy but it gives some color.

    • khazhoux 3 minutes ago
      In first-person shooters, when you die you regenerate (“respawn”) somewhere on the map. If those regeneration points are know to opposing players, they can wait next to them, and kill you again the moment you respawn.

      The premise in this article is: Western companies do a ton of expensive work building new models, meanwhile the Chinese companies just wait for a Western release and then they immediately grab and distill it and announce it as their own model. That’s the spawn-camp.

    • some_furry 6 minutes ago
      It's gamer terminology.

      In a PvP (player vs player) game, if you kill a player the moment they spawn into the game arena, that's called "spawn-camping".